The Truth About The Strenght Of The Australian Real Estate Market
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Strong GDP figures don’t necessarily translate to strong property value growth
The strength of the Australian economy surprised most of the economic community when GDP figures were released earlier this week. The seasonally adjusted figures showed the Australian economy grew by 1.2% over the June quarter and 3.3% over the year. The broad expectation was for a 0.9% increase in the rate of economic expansion.
It’s logical to think that a strong economy is likely to propel real estate sales into another growth phase.Around 95% of the participating workforce is employed, interest rates have stabilized, consumer confidence is positive and the mining sector is continuing to see solid growth, all of these factors build the economy.
Despite the strong economic foundations, we would be surprised if Australian home values did continue to climb. However, home values don’t always move in concert with economic conditions.The real estate market generally softens as the economy slows down, but the opposite is not always true.
The 2000/01 property boom provides a recent example.In Sydney, the property growth cycle peaked in June 2002 when capital city home values had recorded 22.5% growth over the previous 12 months. At the same time annual GDP growth reached a peak of 4.5% then gradually declined to 2.3% a year later. When GDP started once again to skyrocket on the back of the mining boom (reaching an annual growth rate of 4.9% in March 2004), Sydney property values actually continued their downwards trend, moving into negative growth between June 2004 and March 2006 despite annual GDP growth remaining above 2.5% the entire time.
The Melbourne market behaved quite similarly, however the downturn was rapid and the market recovered reasonably quickly and growth rates have mostly outperformed the national average over this period.
Despite this, strong economic fundamentals don’t always drive property markets. The stage of the market cycle has a strong influence over growth rates and the momentum of the cycle is difficult to break.
There are quite a few parallels that can be drawn between the market back in 2004 and the one we are seeing today. At the end of 2003 the market was emerging from a strong growth phase led by Melbourne and Sydney. As the market was winding down the resources sector was starting to heat up.GDP growth was healthy, unemployment was in the low and consumer confidence was high.The markets that showed the most growth were Brisbane followed by Perth in second place.
To view detailed sales history data and recent home sales information, please visit the myrp.com.au web site.